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On the basis of an assessment of the current and evolving macroeconomic situation, it has been decided to:. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF will remain unchanged at 6. Growth in the United States is likely to have been weak in the first quarter of calendarpartly because of US dollar appreciation, but is expected to strengthen.
The Euro area has started to show modest improvement, supported by a boost to demand from lower crude prices and the depreciation of the euro as well as easing financial and credit conditions following the commencement of quantitative easing. With the waning of the impact of the consumption tax increase, growth turned positive in Japan in Q4 of and consumer confidence and exports picked up. However, retail sales and industrial production contracted, indicating that the outlook is still weak.
Growth continues to slow in China amidst financial fragilities and macroeconomic imbalances. This will have regional and global ramifications, although the softness in international commodity prices is providing some offset for net importers while adversely impacting net exporters.
Global growth is likely to firm up through andsupported by stronger recovery in the advanced economies AEs and soft energy prices. Downside risks mainly emanate from the slowdown in China, geopolitical risks surrounding oil prices and the uneven effects of currency and commodity price movements. Global financial markets have been boosted by expectations of normalisation of US monetary policy being pushed back into latemonetary policy stances turning highly accommodative in other AEs, and several emerging market economies EMEs easing policy rates to address growth concerns.
Long-term yields have declined to all-time lows on weak inflation expectations, compression of term premiums and the safe haven forex association of india calendar 2014 of US Treasuries. Ultra low forex association of india calendar 2014 rates and reduction in risk premia have raised most asset prices to record highs, and have pushed investors to riskier assets such as equity and lower rated debt instruments.
Exchange rates have experienced large and volatile movements, with the US dollar strengthening against most currencies. Nevertheless, with high portfolio flows to EMEs, risks from sudden shifts in market sentiment have increased. Domestic economic activity is likely to have strengthened in Q4. Second advance estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture suggest that the contraction in food grains production in may turn out to be less than earlier anticipated.
However, the adverse impact of unseasonal rains and hailstorms in March is still unfolding. Initial estimates indicate that as much as 17 per cent of the sown area under the rabi crop may have been affected though the precise extent of the damage remains to be determined. The growth in allied activities is likely to remain strong as in the recent past, though it remains to be seen whether it will fully compensate the decline in food grains output.
The industrial sector, and in particular, manufacturing appears to be regaining momentum, with the growth of production in positive territory for three consecutive months till January. While basic goods production has been expanding steadily since Novembercapital goods output has been relatively lumpy and volatile, and more positive readings are needed to be confident about a durable pick-up in investment demand.
The persisting contraction in consumer durables production for over two years could be reflecting the underlying weakness in consumption demand as well as higher imports. Mixed signals are coming from the service sector. While the national accounts statistics seem to suggest that consumption demand for services is robust relative to the demand for goods, and purchasing managers perceive activity expanding on new orders, various coincident indicators of services sector activity including railway and port traffic, domestic and international passenger traffic, international freight traffic, tourist arrivals, motorcycle and tractor sales as forex association of india calendar 2014 as bank credit and deposit growth remain subdued.
Retail inflation forex association of india calendar 2014 by the year-on-year changes in the revised consumer price index CPI firmed forex association of india calendar 2014 for the third successive month in February as favourable base effects dissipated, despite the price index remaining virtually flat since December.
The still elevated levels of prices of protein-rich items such as forex association of india calendar 2014, meat, fish forex association of india calendar 2014 milk kept food inflation from following the seasonal decline in prices of vegetables and fruits. The prices of items such as sugar and edible oil moderated in consonance with the downturn in global commodity prices. Fuel inflation edged up for the second month in a row due to the increase in prices of electricity and firewood.
Inflation excluding food and forex association of india calendar 2014 fell successively in the nine months till February. A large part of this disinflation has been on account of the slump in international crude oil prices feeding through into domestic prices of petrol and diesel that are forex association of india calendar 2014 under the category transport and communication.
Inflation in respect of housing has also eased in the revised CPI, in part reflecting methodological and coverage improvements. Furthermore, upside pressures affecting prices of services such as education, health and other services have also fallen on account of weak demand conditions. The rate of growth of rural wages has come off substantially from the double digit levels that prevailed up to November Firms are also reporting a substantial easing of input price pressures, barring the most recent purchasing manager surveys.
Reflecting past disinflation, inflation expectations of households are in single digits, although they too exhibit some firming up in Q4 in response to the turning up of food and fuel inflation during January-February. Since the shift in the monetary policy stance in January towards accommodation, the Reserve Bank has moved to ensure comfortable liquidity conditions through pro-active liquidity management, including fine-tuning operations on week days and access to the MSF and fixed rate reverse repo on Saturdays.
This has helped to smooth the liquidity frictions that characterise events such as advance tax payments and balance sheet dates, keeping the money market rates anchored to the repo rate. Export performance has been progressively weakening and contraction set in on both non-oil and petroleum product exports since December Fragile external demand conditions and the softness in international commodity prices have taken a heavy toll, as in several other EMEs in Asia.
In particular, price realisations have been eroded, despite export volumes going up. With the Indian rupee gaining in real effective terms, export margins forex association of india calendar 2014 coming under pressure for those exporters without substantial imported inputs.
Net terms of trade gains and compression in imports of petroleum products have narrowed the trade deficit in the last three months to its lowest level since Gold imports remained contained; although non-oil non-gold imports grew at a modest pace in these months, they may be reflecting substitution effects in view of the sluggishness in domestic manufacturing.
Exports of services, particularly, software and travel have provided a silver lining and have helped to hold down the current account deficit CAD which has narrowed in Q3. This improvement has likely extended into Q4.
These reserves, including forward purchases that will be delivered over the next few months, provide some buffer against potential capital outflows when monetary policy normalisation in AEs commences. Good macroeconomic policy will, of course, be the critical first line of defence in retaining investor confidence.
In so far, the inflation path has evolved along the projected path after a sizable forex association of india calendar 2014 of the January target. CPI inflation is projected at its current levels in the first quarter ofmoderating thereafter to around 4 per cent by August but firming forex association of india calendar 2014 to reach forex association of india calendar 2014.
Transmission of policy rates to lending rates has not taken place so far despite weak credit off take and the front loading of two rate cuts. With little transmission, and forex association of india calendar 2014 possibility that incoming data will provide more clarity on the balance of risks on inflation, the Reserve Bank will maintain status quo in its monetary policy stance in this review.
The Monetary Policy Framework Agreement signed by the Government forex association of india calendar 2014 India and the Reserve Bank in February will shape the stance of monetary policy in and succeeding years. The Reserve Bank will stay focussed on ensuring that the economy disinflates gradually and durably, with CPI inflation targeted at 6 per cent by January and at 4 per cent by the end of As outlined above, several favourable forces are at work, consistent with the change in the monetary policy stance towards accommodation effected from January.
The outlook for growth is improving gradually. Comfortable liquidity conditions forex association of india calendar 2014 enable banks to transmit the recent reductions in the policy rate into their lending rates, thereby improving financing conditions for the productive sectors of the economy.
Along with initiatives announced in the Union Budget to boost investment in infrastructure and to improve the business environment, these factors should provide confidence to private investment and, together with the conducive outlook on inflation, deliver real income gains to consumers and lower input cost advantages to corporates. GDP growth estimates of the CSO for already project a robust pick-up, but leading and coincident indicators suggest a downward revision of these estimates when fuller information on real activity for the last quarter becomes available.
Uncertainty surrounding the arrival and distribution of the monsoon and unanticipated global developments are the two major risks to baseline growth forex association of india calendar 2014. Assuming a normal monsoon, continuation of the cyclical upturn in a supportive policy environment, and no major structural change or supply shocks, output growth for is projected at 7.
Going forward, the accommodative stance of monetary policy will be maintained, but monetary policy actions will be conditioned by incoming data.
First, the Reserve Bank will await the transmission by banks of its front-loaded rate reductions in January and February into their lending rates. Second, developments in sectoral prices, especially those of food, will be monitored, as will the effects of recent weather disturbances and the likely strength of the monsoon, as the Reserve Bank stays vigilant to any threats to the disinflation that is underway.
The Reserve Bank will look through both seasonal as well as base effects. Third, the Reserve Bank will look to a continuation and even acceleration of policy efforts to unclog the supply response so as to make available key inputs such as power and land.
Further progress on repurposing of public spending from poorly targeted subsidies towards public investment and on reducing the pipeline of stalled investment will also be helpful in containing supply constraints and creating room for monetary accommodation.
Finally, the Reserve Bank will watch for signs of normalisation of the US monetary policy, though it anticipates India is better buffered against likely volatility than in the past.
This part of the Statement reviews the progress on various developmental and regulatory policy forex association of india calendar 2014 announced by the Reserve Bank in recent policy statements and also sets out new measures to be taken for strengthening the banking structure; broadening and deepening financial markets and extending the reach of financial services forex association of india calendar 2014 all. Steps taken to revise the monetary policy framework are documented in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report.
They advised that the CCCB would be activated as forex association of india calendar 2014 when circumstances warrant, and that the decision would normally be pre-announced with a lead time of four quarters. The framework envisages the credit-to-GDP gap as the main indicator which may be used in conjunction with other supplementary indicators such as the incremental credit-deposit C-D ratio for a moving period of three years, the industrial outlook survey IOS assessment index and the interest coverage ratio.
A review and empirical testing of these forex association of india calendar 2014 was carried out to assess whether activation of the CCCB is warranted. It was concluded that the overall situation does not warrant imposition of CCCB at this point of time. In Julybanks were allowed to issue long term bonds LTBswith exemptions from certain regulatory pre-emptions, for lending to i long-term projects in infrastructure sub-sectors, and ii affordable housing.
However, cross-holding of such bonds amongst banks is currently not forex association of india calendar 2014. On a review, it has been decided to allow banks to invest in such bonds issued by other banks, subject to the following conditions:. Its aggregate holding of such bonds will also be subject to certain limits in relation to its own assets. For monetary transmission to occur, lending rates have to be sensitive to the policy rate. With the introduction of the Base Rate on July 1, banks could set their actual lending rates on loans and advances with reference to the Base Rate.
At present, banks are following different methodologies in computing their Base Rate — on the basis of average cost of funds, marginal cost of funds or blended cost of funds liabilities.
Base Rates based on marginal cost of funds should be more sensitive to changes in the policy rates. In order to improve the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, the Reserve Bank will encourage banks to move in a time-bound manner to marginal-cost-of-funds-based determination of their Base Rate.
Detailed guidelines will be issued shortly. The Financial Benchmarks India Pvt. This administrator will start operations by end-May Once it starts publishing various indices of market interest rates, the Reserve Bank will explore the possibility of encouraging banks to use the indices as an external benchmark for pricing bank products. Time spent on reviews reduces the leeway for the board to discuss issues of strategic importance for banks such as product market strategy and risk management.
Nayak recommended that discussions in the boards of banks need to be upgraded and greater focus should be on strategic issues. The need to bring in professionalism to the boards of banks cannot be overemphasized.
In order to attract and retain professional directors, it is essential that they are appropriately compensated. Public sector banks follow guidelines issued by the government in this regard. The remuneration of the part-time Chairmen of private sector banks are approved specifically for each bank under the current statutory provisions.
However, there is no guidance on remuneration to other non-executive directors of private sector banks. Therefore, it is proposed:. Detailed guidelines in this regard will be issued separately. As part of continuing measures to promote liquidity, the Reserve Bank will formulate a scheme for market making by primary dealers in semi-liquid and illiquid government securities. Details of the scheme will be worked out and implemented in consultation with market participants within the next three months.
To increase participation of the retail and mid-segment investors in the G-sec market, gilt account holders GAHs were also extended web-based access to NDS-OM secondary market trading platform and NDS-auction platform primary market platform earlier.