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We leave an indelible electronic footprint whenever we use the web. In recent years, computer scientists have discovered that this presents them with a remarkable opportunity to record and and track the behaviour of humanity in its virtual incarnation. One important question is to what extent behaviour in cyberspace influences or reflects behaviour in the real world. There are various examples of close correlations. Perhaps the best is the powerful predictive links that researchers have discovered between flu-related web search terms and the actual spread of the disease.
These guys have trawled the search queries submitted to Yahoo! They say the volume of search queries related to companies on the NASDAQ are correlated with the volumes of trades in those same companies in the following days. This implies that they are not expert traders. So the effect emerges from the collective but uncoordinated activity of many inexpert users—a kind of wisdom crowds. However, the team says its discovery could be extremely useful. There have been many examples of wisdom-of-crowd effects melting into the background noise.
This one needs to be treated with care because there is no mechanism for cause and effect. But the idea that websurfers with little trading expertise can somehow be responsible for driving the volume of trades in any particular stock is not so easy to accept. Cristelli and co will need to work harder to explain how this could happen.
Perhaps the volume of searches reflect some other influence, such as stories in the mainstream news or advertising campaigns, which influence professional and casual traders alike. Stock picking is a notoriously slippery practice, littered with pitfalls and snake oil. Without some reasonable explanation of cause and effect, critics will find it hard to dismiss the possibility that this result is little more than a crazy correlation thrown up by chance.
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